WE in South Asia are the children of the monsoon, as described by David Jiménez in his 2008 book.
While governments may not always recognise it, we are bound by an ecosystem that inextricably links our resilience through shared climate realities from one end of South Asia to the other.
Shared ecosystems
1) Rivers: The Indus River system serves as a central artery for India and Pakistan, comprising six major tributaries: eastern (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) and western (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
These shared waters account for over 90 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural use and support seven Indian states and territories: Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Indian-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi. Heavy monsoons and poor transboundary management are increasingly causing deadly flooding in the Punjab and Sindh floodplains.
2) Mountains: The Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan ranges have interconnected geological features. The Himalayan watershed extends across northern India through occupied J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, extending westward from Pakistan.
The Karakoram lies primarily in Gilgit-Baltistan and extends into disputed Ladakh and Aksai Chin. The Hindukush runs through Afghanistan into northwestern Pakistan, merging with the Karakoram at its eastern end.
These three ranges converge near Jaglot in northern Pakistan, where the Gilgit and Indus rivers meet. This complex system houses some of the world’s largest glaciers and has become a hotspot for glacial lake outburst floods (Glofs), creating a geologically volatile landscape.
Only coordinated Indo-Pakistani climate governance can prevent downstream disasters.
3) Deserts: The Thar desert spans India and Pakistan, spreading desertification and drought in both countries.
This arid subtropical desert experiences low irregular rainfall, soil erosion and water scarcity, driving demand for inter-basin transfers like the Beas–Bikaner and Indira Gandhi canals. Most of this desert lies in India, primarily Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana. The remainder extends into Pakistan’s drought-prone districts in Sindh and Punjab. The Pakistani Punjab portion is known as the Cholistan desert.
4) Coasts: This maritime climate zone affects monsoon patterns, cyclones and ocean currents impacting India and Pakistan’s coastal weather.
Pakistan faces transboundary threats from powerful Arabian Sea tropical cyclones along India’s 2,500-kilometre western coastline.
Recent years have seen increased storm frequency and intensity, creating growing shared risks.
5) Delta: The vast Indus delta mangroves are also divided. From Thatta, Badin, Sajawal and Karachi to India’s Gujarat coast, these mangroves depend on the Arabian Sea’s tidal waters and freshwater flows of the Indus that regulate salt levels, sediment and nutrients essential for growth.
The Rann of Kutch also straddles the border, with the larger portion in Gujarat and a smaller part in Sindh. It serves as a seasonal flooding basin during the monsoons, transforming itself from desert to marsh.
6) Interconnectedness: Climate disasters create predictable chain reactions: upstream heatwaves trigger downstream flooding, mountain glacial bursts cause delta flooding, and Arabian Sea storms affect the entire coastal ecosystem.
Almost all climate-triggered events when originating in Indian states or held territory, cascade downstream to Pakistan. This upstream-downstream dynamic creates disaster chains that demand anticipatory joint management as the following three case studies demonstrate:
a) Kashmir floods: In September 2014, unprecedented floods caused by heavy post-monsoon rains devastated the Kashmir region and downstream areas on both sides.
The disaster originated from Indian-held Kashmir’s meteorological conditions, with the Jhelum and Chenab swelling beyond danger levels, submerging Srinagar and numerous villages. The floods then followed the natural downstream flow into Pakistani Punjab, affecting over 1.1 million people and inundating more than 700 villages. Floodwaters breached riverbanks, displacing millions and causing deaths. This disaster demonstrated Pakistan’s vulnerability to upstream water management decisions and underscored the urgent need for shared early warning systems.
b) Transboundary heatwave: The spring 2022 heatwave originated in India’s northern plains before sweeping into Pakistan, breaking temperature records and reaching over 49 degrees Celsius in parts of Pakistan.
In India, the heatwave severely damaged the wheat crop, reducing yields and spiking global wheat prices. As the heatwave moved downstream to Pakistan, it triggered accelerated glacier melt leading to Glofs and intensified rains that worsened the floods, submerging a third of the country and displacing millions. This event exemplified how atmospheric extremes originating upstream create compounding climate impacts downstream.
c) Arabian Sea cyclones: Tropical cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea develop closer to India’s longer coastline before affecting Pakistan, following weather pattern movements. Cyclone Kyarr (2019), while not making landfall, caused coastal flooding and tidal surges in Maharashtra and Gujarat before impacting Sindh and Balochistan.
Cyclone Tauktae (2021), one of the deadliest cyclones in the Arabian Sea, devastated India’s west coast before bringing destructive rain and ferocious winds, forcing evacuations and causing infrastructure disruptions. These events show how climate threats move from upstream origins to downstream impacts.
Global lessons
Despite having no diplomatic relations since 1993, Armenia and Türkiye demonstrate that shared dam management is possible even amid hostile political tensions, operating the Arpaçay Dam through monthly meetings that maintain equitable water-sharing based on agreements of 1927.
Conversely, Ethiopia’s unilateral construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without downstream consent created permanent regional tensions with Egypt and Sudan, demonstrating precisely the type of conflict that cooperative management could prevent.
These shared ecological realities demand immediate joint climate management between India and Pakistan. Each case study demonstrates how disasters originating in India cascade downstream to Pakistan, making collaborative early warning systems and shared water infrastructure management essential for Pakistan’s resilience. Without joint management of upstream barrages and dams, Pakistan remains dangerously vulnerable to decisions made by upstream floodgate controllers.
A major lesson from the 2025 floods emerges: only coordinated Indo-Pakistani climate governance can prevent downstream disasters and eliminate suspicions of water terrorism. Joint management of upstream water infrastructure would ensure transparent, cooperative responses to extreme weather events, protecting both nations while building trust. The alternative is a continuation of cascading disasters that neither country can manage by itself.
Opinion Published in Dawn, September 11th, 2025
